The Monday Mix (28/02/2022)
Hi friends,
Today, I want to focus this email on the Russia-Ukraine war which has been raging for the past five days. I’ve mentioned it a few times in the past weeks, but if I’m honest I didn’t believe Putin would go through with the war. Maybe a small incursion into eastern Ukraine but not a full-blown invasion. But here we are, 20+ years after the Yugoslav conflict, there’s war again in Europe.
Putin’s actions are heinous and come from a warped understanding of history. The Covid crisis has seen him isolated in a bunker as he cowers from the virus. The spectacle of him sitting on a long table away from his ministers and advisers is an illustration of how far removed he is from reality.
This is a dangerous moment for all of us. Wars are non-linear. There is a beginning, but we do not know how, or when, war will end. What makes this situation even more fraught is that Putin has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal at his fingertips. Would he be crazy enough to use this arsenal, as he’d recently indicated, if Ukraine continues to resist? It’s a possibility.
What I do know is that Putin has undermined all his hard work in trying to break apart NATO and the EU. European countries are more united than ever. The solidarity with Ukrainians from all corners of the continent, and the globe, is incredible and the EU is more united than it has been in years. Putin has miscalculated, and I believe this marks the beginning of the end for him. The question now is, how will that end come and when will it happen.
We can only hope it’s sooner rather than later.
What’s going on inside Putin’s head?
This is a fascinating piece that tries to understand Putin’s mindset. It’s written by Peter Pomerantsev, who lived in Moscow during the early years of Putin’s reign and is the author of a brilliant book, This is Not Propaganda. The article sets out Putin’s worldview which essentially boils down to an extension of Russian influence across eastern Europe, and a situation where Putin recasts the international order in his image.
Tough nation-states that do not obey the rule of law but the rule of the jungle. The actions of the past few days leave us in no doubt about Putin’s mindset and his desires. Ukraine is now the frontline in the fight for freedom and democracy.
How To Help Ukraine
A great resource on how all of us can help those in Ukraine, even if it’s only minimal. Watching the war unfold, it’s not hard to feel helpless as you see the wanton destruction that’s being perpetrated on innocent people. We may not be able to do much to stop this, but what we can do helps. Solidarity in the face of tyranny has never been more important.
Putin’s Miscalculation
What’s astonishing about this war is how badly Putin has miscalculated the situation. This article does a great job of explaining why. Essentially, Putin saw the west’s chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, and how the Taliban rolled into Kabul and thought he could do the same in Ukraine. What’s happened instead is that Ukraine has united behind its leader and put up brave resistance.
Putin thought he could get the job done in a matter of days, suffer little consequences and bask in the glory of his swift victory. Instead, he’s arguably laid the foundations of a modern Ukraine, one that will now look to the west. Revived NATO and the EU, and imperilled his own leadership. He’s also likely pushed away China, who will be now be casting admiring glances towards Russia in the hopes they can capture some of the vast natural resources in the country should Putin’s reign start to crumble.
Far from creating a new Russian empire and international order, Putin has sown the seeds of his own downfall.
Book I’m reading - Kleptopia by Tom Burgis
A fitting book about the world of oligarchs and how they shift their money around the globe. Shamefully, as an Englishman, most of it is laundered through the City of London. This book is an incredible read. It’s a non-fiction book that reads like a thriller and some of the details are just mindboggling. My main takeaway is that the super-rich operates to a completely different set of rules to you and me. What they can do and get away with is astounding and should have us all up in arms.
Quote I’m pondering: “If the road to hell is paved with good intentions, compromises on principles are the street lights” – Garry Kasparov
That’s all for this week.
Until next time,
Tom